Publications

Courting Civilians During Conflict: Evidence from Taliban Judges in Afghanistan

Published in International Organization, 2024

Rebels regularly provide public services - especially legal services - but the consequences of such programs are unclear. We argue rebel courts can boost civilian support for insurgency and augment attack capacity by increasing the legitimacy of the rebellion, creating a vested interest in rebel rule, or by enabling rebel coercion of the civilian population. We study the impact of the Taliban’s judiciary by leveraging cross-district and overtime variation in exposure to Taliban courts using a trajectory balancing design. We find courts reduced civilian support for the government and increased support for the Taliban, and were associated with more attacks and coalition casualties. Exploring mechanisms, we find courts resolved major interpersonal disputes between civilians, facilitated more insurgent intimidation of civilians, and that changes in public opinion are unlikely to have been driven solely through social desirability bias. Our findings help explain the logic of rebel courts and highlight the complex interactions between warfare and institutional development in weak states.

Recommended citation: Donald Grasse, Renard Sexton, Austin Wright "Courting Civilians During Conflict: Evidence from Taliban Judges in Afghanistan" https://donaldgrasse.github.io/files/Courting_Civilians_During_Conflict__Evidence_from_Taliban_Judges_in_Afghanistan.pdf

State Terror and Long-run Development: The Persistence of the Khmer Rouge

Published in American Political Science Review (Accepted), 2022

Abstract: Does mass repression have a long-term economic legacy, and if so, what explains persistence? I argue repression can undermine development by delimiting human capital. I study the aftermath of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. The regime implemented a campaign of violence to reorganize society, yet governing elites varied across the communist ideological spectrum. I exploit an arbitrary border that allocated villages to either the loyalist Mok or the relatively moderate Sy in Kampong Speu province. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find villages in the more extremist Southwest zone are poorer today compared to villages in the adjacent West zone, and had lower human capital immediately after the regime. Exposure to more intense repression shapes labor markets and child health, explaining intergenerational persistence. I find no conclusive evidence for other persistence channels. My findings add a novel pathway to the library of mechanisms which explain why historical coercion undermines development.

Recommended citation: Grasse, Donald (2022). "State Terror and Long-term Development: The Persistence of the Khmer Rouge." American Political Science Review http://donaldgrasse.github.io/files/state-terrror-long-term-development-grasse-apsr.pdf

Oil Crops and Social Conflict: Evidence from Indonesia

Published in Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2022

When do agricultural transformations impact social stability? Cash crops are typically associated with economic prosperity and social peace. I argue agricultural booms may spur violent conflict over resource allocation by pitting would-be producers against incumbent landowners when the gains from production are concentrated and the negative externalities are diffuse. I study the rapid expansion of oil palm in Indonesia, a growingly important crop in the global economy. I find when oil palm grows more valuable and expands within producing districts, violent resource conflicts increase. The positive relationship does not exist for other cash crops, nor other types of conflict, and is moderated by the presence of sustainability certified processing mills. The results connect commodity shocks to non-state violence over resources, and suggest land use change is an important mechanism connecting agricultural booms to social conflict.

Recommended citation: Grasse, Donald. (2022). "Oil Crops and Social Conflict: Evidence from Indonesia"; Journal of Conflict Resolution. Volume: 66 Issue: 7-8, page(s): 1422-1448. http://donaldgrasse.github.io/files/crops-conflict-2022-accepted.pdf

Opportunistic Repression: Civilian Targeting by the State in Response to COVID-19

Published in International Security, 2021

Summary: We propose opportunistic repression as a framework for understanding repression under authoritarian regimes. We test our argument by studying patterns of state violence against civilians in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which created a window of opportunity for dictators to use force against opposition figures under the auspice of public health.

Recommended citation: Donald Grasse, Melissa Pavlik, Hilary Matfess, Travis B. Curtice (2021). "Opportunistic Repression: Civilian Targeting by the State in Response to COVID-19." International Security (2021) 46 (2): 130–165. https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/46/2/130/107696/Opportunistic-Repression-Civilian-Targeting-by-the